How long do you expect the Switch to remain active?

[Spirit]

The Switch hasnt released yet and people are already very worried, because of its hybrid makeup it means that multiplatform third party titles may not look or run as well on The Switch when compared to the PS4...

Other worrying aspects are paid online subscription and monthly NES SNES loans, silence on the virtual console, the price of rhe add ons like the pro controller and the charge grip.

Others worry about the launch and the games coming throughout the year...

The Wii U bombed and lost momentum rather quickly, its possible the Switch can still go the same way as the WiiU...

Based on your opinions and recent history, how long do you think thw Switch will remain active?
How long do you think the momentum of releases both third and first party will last more than a couple of months/years?

What are your predictions?

 

[Ventus]

Two years let's be real. This initial year is the first year, a huge drought for the second and third years it is technically on the market, then a big bang attack on the fourth year. Fifth year will get zero support and sixth year the announce the Nintendo Switch In My Ass™

 

[Tetra's Wink]

What are these online subscriptions?

 

[A Link In Time]

If the Switch gets a mainline Pokémon game, it will last for five-six years with great support throughout. If not, the first two years will be good support, then a drought for two years, and a few worthwhile games in the last year.

 

[Pen]

I don't think it will last shorter than the Wii U did, but it might not last quite as long as the Wii did. I estimate the Switch will be replaced by the next console sometime during mid to late 2022.

 

[Bowsette Plus-Ultra]

I'm going to be optimistic one (should come as a surprise to anyone who's observed my critical views of Nintendo).

The Switch is sold out.

I've never pre-ordered a console, nor have I ever purchased one at the very beginning of its lifespan (I got an Xbox 360 about six months after release, so I didn't suffer through console shortages), so I might be overestimating the significance of system pre-orders, but that should be an indication of interest in the system. And since the Switch stayed sold out even after the lackluster presentation, the public's interest in the system and the titles available further down the line might be enough to carry it through the weak launch lineup.

I don't know about anyone else here, but I'm going with that cool-games-are-coming-later schtick. Breath of the Wild is the only game interesting me at launch (barring the possibility of GameCube titles being released via virtual console) and I know I'm not alone in that attitude. Heck, pre-orders are still sold out everywhere in spite of gamer disappointment over the Switch presentation. It clearly has some kind of appeal (and a number of cool games on the horizon), so I think it'll last for a while. If Nintendo holds true to this claim of eighty third party titles being released for the system over 2017, we should be good to go.

And I can't help but giggle at the thought of Elder Scrolls: Skyrim in my pocket. I'm one of those guys who sank two-hundred hours into the game, but the idea of carrying it with me during a long flight still draws me in. I've grown more excited for the Switch since pre-ordering it (crazy, right? I'm probably the only one), not just because Breath of the Wild looks spectacular, but because I can bring it with me.

The portability of the Switch is its biggest selling point to me and I think it's the same for a lot of other people.

True Story: Today I was talking about the Switch with some of my classmates in AIT (Advanced Individual Training--that's job school for you non-Army folks). These guys just came out of Basic Training, so they were in lockdown during the Switch's reveal and its ensuing presentation. And even though they've graduated Basic Training, they still have very limited access to the internet, so they haven't had any exposure to the comings and goings of the gaming world.

During a moment of downtime, I pulled out my phone and showed a couple of them the original trailer for the Switch--the one that was cool, slick, and to the point.

And they loved it!

These were a bunch of PS4 and Xbox One players who thought the thing looked wicked. After being told it was a console-level system you could bring with you on the go, it became the coolest piece of hardware they'd seen.

And that's where I think the Switch's appeal will be. Even if it takes a slight graphical hit compared to the Xbox One and Playstation 4 (which we've yet to see, since we have few cross-platform games and no specifics on where the Switch sits specs-wise), the ability to bring your copy of Skyrim on the plane with you is sweet.

And let's not forget stuff like Xenoblade 2, Mario Odyssey, and Splatoon 2.

I think we'll be okay for a few years.

 

[the8thark]

History says 5 years. Every Nintendo home console since the SNES has been 5 years.
Recent events makes me think it'll be a touch longer than 5 years. Maybe 6-7 years.

I think we'll be okay for a few years.

I agree with you totally. Those who want raw console power, will buy their PS4P or XB1S. The rest will probably see the Switch as your Army mates did. This is a very good thing indeed. Nintendo need to use this in their marketing.

Even if it takes a slight graphical hit compared to the Xbox One and Playstation 4 (which we've yet to see, since we have few cross-platform games and no specifics on where the Switch sits specs-wise), the ability to bring your copy of Skyrim on the plane with you is sweet.

Dragon Quest Heroes 1/2 is the only game we've seen direct comparisons of Switch to PS4. The PS4 version does look better. But the Switch version looks pretty good too. I can't say I know why though. Games like BotW, Mario Odessy, MK8 all look as good as the PS4 version of DQH 1/2. So yeah it's a bad exmple but it's the only one we have so far.

I've grown more excited for the Switch since pre-ordering it (crazy, right? I'm probably the only one), not just because Breath of the Wild looks spectacular, but because I can bring it with me.

This is exactly why Nintendo needs to advertise this as "a portable console that plays home console games". Everything you've said is about people loving the portabilty of the Switch. Sure the Switch is tablet porability, not 3DS portability. But being able to (with just one AC cable) plug the Switch into whatever power point you have, wherever you're staying, and play your games is amazing. No need to look for a television. No need to spend time setting it up. No need for a portable hard drive as the SD card is always with you (in the Switch itself).

This is also important because military folk are on strict timings. As in their R&R time is timed to the minute. (I know military people here and I assume it's the same over there). Not having to waste time setting up a console wherever they are in the world (if they have access to a television) is a huge thing. One cable into the switch and power point and they are ready to go.

I do think someone does need to create an extended battery for the Switch for those longer plane flights or longer trips away from fixed power points. Do this and people will buy it.

I'm not against you being critical of the Switch. It's a good thing. Without critics (ones who constructively criticise, not just complain) there's no one pointing out the flaws that need to be fixed for future consoles. So to that end I think you. You and I are both Nintendo fans. You and I both haave heavily criticised Ninrendo in the past. Anyone who knows me, knows I've shredded Wind Waker and a few other games to pieces. But it's for the same reason you do. We nitpick because we want the best from Nintendo. If we didn't care, we'd not say a thing.

Having PS4 and XB1 fans saying portability and fun is amazing and having them accept a slight graphical hit for this, is actually quite amazing. This is new ground. They are accepting a slight graphical hit in the name of portabilitiy and fun. Something they would never do with their PS4 and XB1. To them the PS4 and XB1 games have to be amazing, no compromise allowed. Many of those PS4 and XB1 games do look amazing though. I've also noticed a similar thing happen here. This is big. If it keeps up it could really change the industry into new and better times.

 

[CrimsonCavalier]

I think people are stoked about Breath of the Wild on Switch, and that is definitely what pushed it selling out. However, unless there are new announcements soon that momentum will die very very fast. As someone who already decided to hold off until May to get one (because of school), I'm already disillusioned. The game line-up aside from Zelda, Splatoon 2, Xenoblade 2 looks abysmal. There are other games that have been announced, but are in limbo: no release dates, some of them are still being referred to with their working title name: "Upcoming Tales game" We don't know what game, when, or anything. Is it a main Tales game, or a spin-off? Is it coming this year or 2018?

We already know two big hitters aren't coming until the end of the year! Mario and Skyrim needed to come out sooner. The launch day lineup is embarrassing (and I know, Zelda is the only game people care about at launch), and from March to May, it's really slim pickings. This is literally a worse launch line up than the Wii U had.

I'm sorry, but I'm not excited at all anymore. The games that are coming are boring and uninteresting. No one is getting a Switch to take Minecraft "on the go".

I tell you what the Switch needs ... if they announced Fallout 4 (even though the game is a broken mess), or a Dark Souls Collection, or the new Assassin's Creed, or GTA 5 (even though it is old), or Resident Evil, for crying out loud ... that would give me hope that real games are coming in the future. But so far? There is nothing.

I don't see the Switch doing well. I see it tanking after a few months.